Good evening readers! The 10th round of the World Chess Championship 2018 being held in The College, London is heating up with all of the 9 games of the Championship thus far having been drawn! I was extremely happy to see Carlsen repeating the line I had predicted( The English Four Knights). He played 4. g3 although I expected 4. e3 if he had some more improvements there. As it transpired, Caruana had already seen this possibility back home yet could not remember the intricate details during the game although the position was equal. The key moments of the game and the Round 9 Report would be published yet here are the predictions:
Carlsen was happy with his position out of the opening but quiet unhappy with the fact that he could not make most of the opportunities he got. However, he seemed pretty displeased and unhappy in the press conference due to the missed chances yet for the first time, he got something tangible with White. Credits: Nikolai Dunaevsky
1.) Carlsen won the opening battle yesterday(massive time advantage) and was happy with the outcomes of the opening as said in the press conference afterwards. Lawrence Trent, his former manager said that Caruana has put on a lot of work for the World Championships which one cannot believe and that anything now can take him by surprise! He claimed to be one of the few people to have seen Caruana's opening database. This sounds very nice and logical yet may have the point that he is exceptionally prepared with the Black pieces against virtually any opening( as Carlsen has virually played every opening with Black against 1. e4) and prepared with White maybe with just 1 or maximum two openings( 1. e4 e5 and another opening) This is probable as Caruana has played in quiet some tournaments before the World Championship Match with good results and mostly, he can rely on his experience with the White pieces( One can handle a surprise with White considerably more easily than handling a surprise with Black.) Usually grandmasters try to press with White and equalize with Black which is a general match strategy. This was not followed. Also, it is generally more suitable to have no problems with Black in such an important match (and even in elite tournaments) while people believe they can find ideas with White during the tournaments also.
2.) The momentum is definitely with Carlsen. He was disappointed yesterday for having missed some chances and for not 'squeezing his opponent'- something he did pretty frequently in his heydays- 2012 to most part of 2016. However, he did not deliver on that. This may seem to suggest that Carlsen is unhappy with the course of events( which he probably is seeing the Post-game press Conference) it is true that he was happy with the opening yesterday. Hence, Carlsen does have the Initiative in terms of the results of opening, which would have considerably risen if he had put Caruana under considerable practical pressure, which he did not manage to.Hence I believe that Carlsen would like to keep the momentum and try to gain some Initiative which can be considerably boosted by avoiding Caruana's preparations. Hikaru Nakamura, one of the top players in the World and America's main bet for being a future World Champion before Wesley So and Fabiano Caruana joined USA( They initially represented Phillipines and USA) respectively said earlier this year that Caruana is very much weaker than the other 7 players( playing in the Candidates Tournament) if you remove the opening stage of the game. While Nakamura is not known for his objectivity, Caruana winning the tournament goes on to say that this may not always be the case. Also, Caruana also defeated Nakamura in the St. Louis Rapid+ Blitz Showdown while it is known that faster time controls considerably limit the impact of opening preparation and Nakamura is known to be a master in these time controls.
3.) By this time, Team Caruana would likely be expecting another Siccilian battle and would be prepared for it. I think that Carlsen should prevent playing the Sveshnikov because Caruana is known for his opening preparations( being more successful than Carlsen in this respect until now in the match). I do not think he will challenge Caruana in the mainline(like happened in Game 8) wherein Caruana would be very well-prepared. I am pretty sure that Caruana has more ideas in the 7. Nd5 line and would be prepared for that. Carlsen can play 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 g6 3. d4 cd4 4. Nd4 g6. However, Caruana usually plays 5.c4 here. Carlsen would definitely have checked it extensively for the match as he may have it as a backup. However, I do think that this is a more predictable choice while a draw is a good result for the World Champion- followed by pressing in Game 11. However, this game must then have been extensively analyzed in the Dragon which Carlsen almost lost: http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1772717
Caruana would have to go for glory today which can very much dissipate Carlsen's chances. He surely has prepared for the Championships very well yet these last three rounds are always the most important; as Anish Giri said ' The last three rounds are what separates a man from a boy'. Credits: Niki Riga
4.) Normally players take two repertoires into the World Championship Matches- one main repertoire and another back-up repertoire in case the main repertoire does not work. This was even done in World Championships in 2000, 2004 and it would be naive to not expect both players follow that..One thing I have admired of Carlsen in this match is that he has been able to neutralise a lot of 'Team Caruana World Championship White preparation' by playing 1...c5 although Team Caruana did find some ideas, which they have probably been found only during the tournament. I am very sure that Caruana would have extensively prepared 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 for the match which Carlsen has therefore not allowed thus far. As I have said earlier, this is one of Carlsen's frequent strategies in the World Championship Matches- to limit opponent preparations! With the Initiative being with Carlsen, I expect Carlsen to not go for this- making Team Caruana preparations fruitful.
5.) Carlsen can play the French Defense if that was a part of his back-up repertoire. This I think maybe unlikely because Carlsen has quiet possibly prepared the Siccilian Dragon and the Siccilian Sveshnikov as a part of his repertoire. I think he can play the French Defense ( to continue with the momentum) only as long as he has prepared it properly for 2-3 days (if on the rest day on 20th or during the other 4 rest days taken thus far). As I have mentioned in my earlier reports, it is a risky decision with Caruana having good results against the French, yet this I believe is pretty much possible and can be a good strategy to continue with the momentum.
6.) I expect Caruana to play the Open Siccilian I do not expect Carlsen to play the Sveshnikov in return as Caruana would definitely have some other ideas other than those shown in Game 8.
7.) I do not expect Caruana to play 1. d4 at all today as he would not like to experiment something for such a crucial game. I think Carlsen should either play the French( only if comfortable with the preparations) or the Siccilian Dragon( although I think this can be avoided.) I think these are the ways for Carlsen to continue with the Initiative. There was a vague idea in my mind for Carlsen to play the Caro-Kann as equalizing today is at the top of his priority list today. That however does not bode too well with his match strategy so far( aggressive Siccilian Sveshnikov with Black while playing everything with White in order to take the Initiative in the match). This is why I do not really expect that to be even a part of Carlsen's backup repertoire for the match. Carlsen has played Caro-Kann many times in the past also, though so has Caruana also playing an earth-shattering novelty against it once. http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1772618 This was also awarded the 'Novelty of the Year 2014' and is one of the very masterpieces of Caruana's opening preparations. Hence, I do believe that Carlsen probably will not play the Caro-Kann. I think he should play the French (though it should be done only if he has played it before the tournament). If Carlsen has only prepared the Sveshnikov Siccilian very deeply, I am scared he may be in serious trouble. I also do believe that the match quiet possibly would end in 12 games itself and have quiet a strong feeling about it.
Carlsen was happy with his position out of the opening but quiet unhappy with the fact that he could not make most of the opportunities he got. However, he seemed pretty displeased and unhappy in the press conference due to the missed chances yet for the first time, he got something tangible with White. Credits: Nikolai Dunaevsky
1.) Carlsen won the opening battle yesterday(massive time advantage) and was happy with the outcomes of the opening as said in the press conference afterwards. Lawrence Trent, his former manager said that Caruana has put on a lot of work for the World Championships which one cannot believe and that anything now can take him by surprise! He claimed to be one of the few people to have seen Caruana's opening database. This sounds very nice and logical yet may have the point that he is exceptionally prepared with the Black pieces against virtually any opening( as Carlsen has virually played every opening with Black against 1. e4) and prepared with White maybe with just 1 or maximum two openings( 1. e4 e5 and another opening) This is probable as Caruana has played in quiet some tournaments before the World Championship Match with good results and mostly, he can rely on his experience with the White pieces( One can handle a surprise with White considerably more easily than handling a surprise with Black.) Usually grandmasters try to press with White and equalize with Black which is a general match strategy. This was not followed. Also, it is generally more suitable to have no problems with Black in such an important match (and even in elite tournaments) while people believe they can find ideas with White during the tournaments also.
2.) The momentum is definitely with Carlsen. He was disappointed yesterday for having missed some chances and for not 'squeezing his opponent'- something he did pretty frequently in his heydays- 2012 to most part of 2016. However, he did not deliver on that. This may seem to suggest that Carlsen is unhappy with the course of events( which he probably is seeing the Post-game press Conference) it is true that he was happy with the opening yesterday. Hence, Carlsen does have the Initiative in terms of the results of opening, which would have considerably risen if he had put Caruana under considerable practical pressure, which he did not manage to.Hence I believe that Carlsen would like to keep the momentum and try to gain some Initiative which can be considerably boosted by avoiding Caruana's preparations. Hikaru Nakamura, one of the top players in the World and America's main bet for being a future World Champion before Wesley So and Fabiano Caruana joined USA( They initially represented Phillipines and USA) respectively said earlier this year that Caruana is very much weaker than the other 7 players( playing in the Candidates Tournament) if you remove the opening stage of the game. While Nakamura is not known for his objectivity, Caruana winning the tournament goes on to say that this may not always be the case. Also, Caruana also defeated Nakamura in the St. Louis Rapid+ Blitz Showdown while it is known that faster time controls considerably limit the impact of opening preparation and Nakamura is known to be a master in these time controls.
3.) By this time, Team Caruana would likely be expecting another Siccilian battle and would be prepared for it. I think that Carlsen should prevent playing the Sveshnikov because Caruana is known for his opening preparations( being more successful than Carlsen in this respect until now in the match). I do not think he will challenge Caruana in the mainline(like happened in Game 8) wherein Caruana would be very well-prepared. I am pretty sure that Caruana has more ideas in the 7. Nd5 line and would be prepared for that. Carlsen can play 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 g6 3. d4 cd4 4. Nd4 g6. However, Caruana usually plays 5.c4 here. Carlsen would definitely have checked it extensively for the match as he may have it as a backup. However, I do think that this is a more predictable choice while a draw is a good result for the World Champion- followed by pressing in Game 11. However, this game must then have been extensively analyzed in the Dragon which Carlsen almost lost: http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1772717
Caruana would have to go for glory today which can very much dissipate Carlsen's chances. He surely has prepared for the Championships very well yet these last three rounds are always the most important; as Anish Giri said ' The last three rounds are what separates a man from a boy'. Credits: Niki Riga
4.) Normally players take two repertoires into the World Championship Matches- one main repertoire and another back-up repertoire in case the main repertoire does not work. This was even done in World Championships in 2000, 2004 and it would be naive to not expect both players follow that..One thing I have admired of Carlsen in this match is that he has been able to neutralise a lot of 'Team Caruana World Championship White preparation' by playing 1...c5 although Team Caruana did find some ideas, which they have probably been found only during the tournament. I am very sure that Caruana would have extensively prepared 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 for the match which Carlsen has therefore not allowed thus far. As I have said earlier, this is one of Carlsen's frequent strategies in the World Championship Matches- to limit opponent preparations! With the Initiative being with Carlsen, I expect Carlsen to not go for this- making Team Caruana preparations fruitful.
5.) Carlsen can play the French Defense if that was a part of his back-up repertoire. This I think maybe unlikely because Carlsen has quiet possibly prepared the Siccilian Dragon and the Siccilian Sveshnikov as a part of his repertoire. I think he can play the French Defense ( to continue with the momentum) only as long as he has prepared it properly for 2-3 days (if on the rest day on 20th or during the other 4 rest days taken thus far). As I have mentioned in my earlier reports, it is a risky decision with Caruana having good results against the French, yet this I believe is pretty much possible and can be a good strategy to continue with the momentum.
6.) I expect Caruana to play the Open Siccilian I do not expect Carlsen to play the Sveshnikov in return as Caruana would definitely have some other ideas other than those shown in Game 8.
7.) I do not expect Caruana to play 1. d4 at all today as he would not like to experiment something for such a crucial game. I think Carlsen should either play the French( only if comfortable with the preparations) or the Siccilian Dragon( although I think this can be avoided.) I think these are the ways for Carlsen to continue with the Initiative. There was a vague idea in my mind for Carlsen to play the Caro-Kann as equalizing today is at the top of his priority list today. That however does not bode too well with his match strategy so far( aggressive Siccilian Sveshnikov with Black while playing everything with White in order to take the Initiative in the match). This is why I do not really expect that to be even a part of Carlsen's backup repertoire for the match. Carlsen has played Caro-Kann many times in the past also, though so has Caruana also playing an earth-shattering novelty against it once. http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1772618 This was also awarded the 'Novelty of the Year 2014' and is one of the very masterpieces of Caruana's opening preparations. Hence, I do believe that Carlsen probably will not play the Caro-Kann. I think he should play the French (though it should be done only if he has played it before the tournament). If Carlsen has only prepared the Sveshnikov Siccilian very deeply, I am scared he may be in serious trouble. I also do believe that the match quiet possibly would end in 12 games itself and have quiet a strong feeling about it.
Comments
Post a Comment