Good evening to all readers!
The 12th game also ended in a draw and the Classical section of the match ended with all draws! This was the first time in the history of chess that such a thing came to happen. The Classical games are behind us. The Games will be played tomorrow ie. 28 November 2018 from 8:30 PM IST onwards. Here is the schedule of the games:
1.) 4 Rapid Games of 25 minutes +10 seconds increment
2.)2 games of 5 minutes+ 3 seconds increment
3.) 2 games of 5 minutes+ 3 seconds increment(again!)
4.) 2 games of 5 minutes+3 seconds increment(again!)
5.) Armageddon game where White has 5 minutes to Black's 4 and Black will become champion if the game ends in a draw.
Tomorrow is the last day of the FIDE World Chess Championship 2018 which will decide the winner. Magnus Carslen is known for his excellence in faster time controls and has a good record v/s Fabiano Caruana in Blitz. Credits: Niki Riga
Carlsen has won many playoffs in his career which and has a playoff score of 9 on 9 since 2007(!):
1.) 2018-1.5-0.5 v/s Giri
2.) 2017-1.5-0.5 v/s MVL
3.) 2016- 3-1 v/s Sergey Karjakin
4.) 2015- 2-0 v/s Yu Yangyi
5.) 2015- 1.5-0.5 v/a MVL
6.)2015 3-2 v/s Naiditsch
7.)2012- 2-0 v/s Caruana( who he would face tomorrow!)
8.)2011- 1.5-0.5 v/s Ivanchuk
9.) 2007- 3-2 v/s Onischuk
Carlsen has a formidable score in the Speed chess time controls. He also won the 1st two editions of the Chess.com Speed Chess Championship( where most of the top players in the world participate) and has won the World Rapid and World Blitz titles multiple times. What makes him so formidable in this shorter format of the game: Here is the answer:
1.) Playoffs reduce the necessity of opening variations- It is much more important to know good opening theory in classical chess than in Rapid and Blitz time controls. Carlsen knows very good opening theory yet he generally prefers to get a game with a slight pull out of theoritical waters and this is why the shorter time controls suit him.
2.) Situationism- Carlsen very often showcases very strong situationism( as is highlighted in the Game 9 predictions) and that makes it extremely difficult to face him. He can hence make the opponent face the most unpleasant openings. This adds psychological pressure on the opponent and makes Carlsen an even bigger favourite going into the tiebreaks.
3.) Nerves- Carlsen is quiet calm and a test done earlier this year showcased him being less-tensed in lost positions than other top-level players. He admitted that it is not always an advantage as being too calm always has it's disadvantages. However, nerves play a major role in deciding games with a shorter time control. This also gives a reason for his dominance in Speed Chess events consistently.
As we had noted in our previous report, Nikita Vitiugov said to Russian Chess Federation's official site that the player who has the momentum would have an initiative in the Tiebreaker. That looks to be with Caruana taking into consideration how the Games 11 and 12 of Classical section went. Hikaru Nakamura, who was undermining Caruana's chances almost throughout the match said it would be awkward if Caruana loses the match having dominated over Carlsen over various facets of the game( openings, middlegame, endgame transitions etc.) Nakamura said that Caruana has 'no chance' in tiebreaks earlier in April yet now rooting for him makes me feel Caruana is preordained to win the match.
One crucial point for tomorrow is the openings. Carlsen would be White in Game 1 and Game 3 and Caruana would be White in Games 2 and Games 4. Choices of openings also depend on the match situation then, but here is what I believe will be played:
1.) Carlsen will open with 1. c4 in both the games. Carlsen has got the initiative in both games wherein he opened with 1. c4 and failed to get the initiative with either 1. e4 and 1. d4. He also knows what Caruana wants to play against 1. c4( on the basis of his replies in Games 4 and Games 9) and can hence come prepared. If Caruana plays 1... e5, I expect a repeat of the English Four Knights Opening wherein Carlsen can play 4. e3 or 4. g3. I am sure 4. g3 would be under strict scrutiny by Team Caruana now so Carlsen may just play 4. e3. Also as I had noted in my previous reports, Carlsen this way will limit 'Team Caruana's' preparations as much as possible! Against this, I think Caruana will play 4... Bb4 as he believes in his preparations more than anything. Carlsen can hence try and gain something this way( although should be played only if confident with one's preparations). Carlsen can play 4. g3 also although only with proper preparations and if he is satisfied if he gets an edge or preferable position out of the opening. I think he should definitely look at some of Mr. Avrukh's suggestions in his book as Avrukh has worked in the past with Caruana and may well be one of his helpers!
2.) According to me, Caruana should not play the Siccilian Reversed. He should do 'A la Carlsen' against Carlsen! This will considerably limit Carlsen's preparations who would be prepared extensively against 1...e5 . Caruana is known to stick with his opening repertoire yet this may just be a 'smart' strategy by Caruana. This way the game would most probably transpose to the QGD wherein Caruana has been able to neutralise both of Carlsen's White games thus far. Hence, I think 1...e6 can be a good idea. Carlsen can reply to that with 2. e4 yet that is not the most principled option and Caruana can then equalise with ease after 2... d5. Carlsen may play 2. Nf3 d5 3. g3 Nf6 4. Bg2 Be7 5.0-0 0-0 yet Caruana can play this variation over the board as I am pretty sure Carlsen will not expect 1....e6 tomorrow. Knowing Caruana however, I think he will stick to the most principled 1... e5 unless told not to by his team. Caruana may fear 2. Nc3 d5 3. d4 Nf6( wherein he prepared the Nimzo-Indian which is not possible now!) yet I think he can play this especially as opening preparations would not be as important anymore. Moreover, I do not believe Carlsen would have looked into this move order deeply thus far.
3.) Carlsen may even try 1. Nf3 d5 2. g3 g6 3. Bg2 Bg7 3. d4 Nf6 4. 0-0 0-0 5. c4. However, Caruana has clearly prioritised it for the World Championship Match. As noted earlier, opening theory is not so important in faster time controls and hence this can be an interesting try to get Caruana thinking. Carlsen should however play this only if he is confident in his preparations. However, he can get outprepared as has been true in much of his White games thus far in the Championship.
4.) Carlsen can play 1. e4 and allow the Petroff only if he and his team finds an 'opening bomb' for the games. If not, he should avoid the opening catastrophe that befall him in Game 6 and Game 11. He can go for the QGD only with concrete preparations and this is again something I think he would like to avoid- playing straight to Caruana's hands who has shown very good preparations in the Petroff and the Queen's Gambit thus far. This has been the way things have happened thus far yet I think Carslen has a clear strategy in the Rapid section judging by his willingness to play a Rapid Tiebreaker.
Here are two important strategies one must keep in mind:
1.) Always try to have more time on the clock:- This is extremely important in Rapid time control to provoke more mistakes and to take over the Initiative. The opponent often crumbles when having less time on the clock especially at faster time control.
2.) Playing practice- It is extremely important to play consistently at home in order to have a 'good feel of the position' and to not think too long or play too quickly at the very same time. This can be an issue especially after playing Classical time control for over 2 weeks. This is especially important for Caruana who has not played as much Speed Chess as has Carlsen over the years.
3.) Stamina- While Caruana looks to have more stamina than Carlsen also claiming that he could play some classical games more if that were so, Carlsen was looking pretty exhausted throughout the match in the Press-conferences. I expect this to be a major battle of physical fitness, especially if it comes down to Game 4 or the Blitz. Caruana should try to take advantage of this by strong concrete preparations which would get Carlsen thinking from the moment 'go'. Carlsen is going to be 29 on 30 November this year. Alexei Shirov wrote in his book ' Fire on Board' that players struggle when nearing the age of 30 as the body does not have the same physical resources it earlier had and that one should exert oneself more judiciously when nearing this age. This factor seems to be favouring Caruana and he may not be as big an underdog if it goes down to Blitz as most people predict.
Carlsen picked up White and will have White for Games 1 and 3 of the Rapid Tiebreaker. Looking at his expression however, I think he wanted Black for the 1st and 3rd game to put maximum pressure in the 2nd and 4th game like in New York, 2016. Credits: Niki Riga
Here is what I think will happen in the openings wherein Caruana has White:
1.) He would stick with 1. e4 which is serving him well in the match- the last American World Champion Fischer called 1. e4 ' Best by Test' and Caruana has stuck to that in the match thus far, with reasonable success. I expect him to do the same now. One of Carlsen's strategies thus far in the match has been to limit ' Team Caruana White preparation' by playing the Siccilian Defense. Now Team Caruana has quiet some things prepared against the Sveshnikov and some ideas in the Rossolimo. However, Carlsen can play 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. d4 cd4 4. Nd4 Nf6 5. Nc3 e6!? move order to avoid considerable preparation by Caruana yet should play it only if he analyses the deviations quiet well. I do not expect it as the character of fight there is something I am sure Carslen would not like to get into. I expect Carlsen to go for something different- 1... e5 would be playing straight to Caruana's World Championship preparations. This is usually Carlsen's main move against 1. e4 . Carlsen can play this now that it is Rapid and Blitz and hence confuse Caruana considerably yet both players would then be considerably prepared. Carlsen- as it is his mainstay repertoire and Caruana because he prepared this quiet extensively for the World Chess Championship Match. Caruana may not expect it and his ideas may not be as 'fresh in the mind' after having faced the Siccilian almost throughout although the same holds true for Carlsen. He can however prepare it consistently with Black and play many training games with it within his camp to get a strong footing. Also 1... e5 is his main repertoire against 1. e4. This can be a clear-cut strategy to focus more on his White games and thus force Caruana to think hence trying to get some 'White ideas' into the game which has thus far not happened much throughout the Match.
2.) The French Defense looks most probable to me as faster time controls reduce the importance of opening theory. Carlsen played this as a surprise v/s Caruana earlier in 2012 with success and would repeat it according to me. Caruana has arguably played every opening under the sun against both 1. e4 and 1. d4 so would have experience yet would not expect this line. Carlsen can hence wish to surprise Caruana with this line and this can be used especially in situations when Carlsen is trailing the match.
This is something we are going to see tomorrow- Carlsen facing Caruana in the World Championship Match for the last time in 2018! Caruana's focused preparations or Carlsen's belief in tiebreaks? My mind says Carlsen but the heart wants Caruana! Also Carlsen's physical preparations would come under scrutiny tomorrow. Credits: World Chess
3.) Carlsen can play 1...c6( the Caro-Kann) to surprise Caruana yet would probably avoid it as Caruana is confident even when he is 'out of book' compared to other top players. This also goes on to explain why Carlsen has not played this opening thus far in the match. I do not think Carlsen will play this. Carlsen will try 1...e5 according to me in all likeliness, although a lot also depends on the match situations one is faced into. Example- Carlsen played 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 d6 3. d4 cd4 4. Nd4 Nf6 5. f3 with White when a draw would have been sufficient to win the match in the 2016 World Chess Championship Match Rapid Game 4 although he would not have prepared it extensively. He played it to pose practical problems to Black. He even allowed repetition at some point as a draw would be sufficient to be the World Chess Champion. Carlsen according to me should play 1...e5 (only with proper preparations) and focus on his White games. He can play the French Defense which would not be expected by Caruana yet that would be at the behest of taking 'off' time to prepare White ideas. The advantage against Caruana with playing French is that Caruana has one main repertoire against it and is very loyal to it and with very good preparations! This can however make his repertoire an easier target according to me.
4.) I do not expect any major strategy overhaul from Caruana and think he will definitely give Carlsen a 'run for the money'. The momentum being with Caruana( great preparation in Game 11+ a narrow lucky escape in Game 12) seems him as equally balanced with Carlsen in the Playoff.
I would love for Caruana to win although do admit Carlsen to be the slight favourite. I wish my track record of 9.0/12.0 goes up tomorrow also yet let us keep our fingers crossed!
5.) If the game exceeds the Rapids, I think both players will try to 'fine-tune' their ideas thus played even further yet that what they play would also be influenced by the match conditions( must-win situation or situation where a draw would be sufficient for Championship). Caruana can play the Benoni Defense with Black if he would want any sharp fight yet his opening choices would again be considerably influenced by the match situations.
I have my own National Junior Chess Championships 2018 coming up from tomorrow onwards and would hence not be able to give any more predictions and posts. I will however try to give it once my tournament ends on 6 December.
Thanks!
The 12th game also ended in a draw and the Classical section of the match ended with all draws! This was the first time in the history of chess that such a thing came to happen. The Classical games are behind us. The Games will be played tomorrow ie. 28 November 2018 from 8:30 PM IST onwards. Here is the schedule of the games:
1.) 4 Rapid Games of 25 minutes +10 seconds increment
2.)2 games of 5 minutes+ 3 seconds increment
3.) 2 games of 5 minutes+ 3 seconds increment(again!)
4.) 2 games of 5 minutes+3 seconds increment(again!)
5.) Armageddon game where White has 5 minutes to Black's 4 and Black will become champion if the game ends in a draw.
Tomorrow is the last day of the FIDE World Chess Championship 2018 which will decide the winner. Magnus Carslen is known for his excellence in faster time controls and has a good record v/s Fabiano Caruana in Blitz. Credits: Niki Riga
Carlsen has won many playoffs in his career which and has a playoff score of 9 on 9 since 2007(!):
1.) 2018-1.5-0.5 v/s Giri
2.) 2017-1.5-0.5 v/s MVL
3.) 2016- 3-1 v/s Sergey Karjakin
4.) 2015- 2-0 v/s Yu Yangyi
5.) 2015- 1.5-0.5 v/a MVL
6.)2015 3-2 v/s Naiditsch
7.)2012- 2-0 v/s Caruana( who he would face tomorrow!)
8.)2011- 1.5-0.5 v/s Ivanchuk
9.) 2007- 3-2 v/s Onischuk
Carlsen has a formidable score in the Speed chess time controls. He also won the 1st two editions of the Chess.com Speed Chess Championship( where most of the top players in the world participate) and has won the World Rapid and World Blitz titles multiple times. What makes him so formidable in this shorter format of the game: Here is the answer:
1.) Playoffs reduce the necessity of opening variations- It is much more important to know good opening theory in classical chess than in Rapid and Blitz time controls. Carlsen knows very good opening theory yet he generally prefers to get a game with a slight pull out of theoritical waters and this is why the shorter time controls suit him.
2.) Situationism- Carlsen very often showcases very strong situationism( as is highlighted in the Game 9 predictions) and that makes it extremely difficult to face him. He can hence make the opponent face the most unpleasant openings. This adds psychological pressure on the opponent and makes Carlsen an even bigger favourite going into the tiebreaks.
3.) Nerves- Carlsen is quiet calm and a test done earlier this year showcased him being less-tensed in lost positions than other top-level players. He admitted that it is not always an advantage as being too calm always has it's disadvantages. However, nerves play a major role in deciding games with a shorter time control. This also gives a reason for his dominance in Speed Chess events consistently.
As we had noted in our previous report, Nikita Vitiugov said to Russian Chess Federation's official site that the player who has the momentum would have an initiative in the Tiebreaker. That looks to be with Caruana taking into consideration how the Games 11 and 12 of Classical section went. Hikaru Nakamura, who was undermining Caruana's chances almost throughout the match said it would be awkward if Caruana loses the match having dominated over Carlsen over various facets of the game( openings, middlegame, endgame transitions etc.) Nakamura said that Caruana has 'no chance' in tiebreaks earlier in April yet now rooting for him makes me feel Caruana is preordained to win the match.
One crucial point for tomorrow is the openings. Carlsen would be White in Game 1 and Game 3 and Caruana would be White in Games 2 and Games 4. Choices of openings also depend on the match situation then, but here is what I believe will be played:
1.) Carlsen will open with 1. c4 in both the games. Carlsen has got the initiative in both games wherein he opened with 1. c4 and failed to get the initiative with either 1. e4 and 1. d4. He also knows what Caruana wants to play against 1. c4( on the basis of his replies in Games 4 and Games 9) and can hence come prepared. If Caruana plays 1... e5, I expect a repeat of the English Four Knights Opening wherein Carlsen can play 4. e3 or 4. g3. I am sure 4. g3 would be under strict scrutiny by Team Caruana now so Carlsen may just play 4. e3. Also as I had noted in my previous reports, Carlsen this way will limit 'Team Caruana's' preparations as much as possible! Against this, I think Caruana will play 4... Bb4 as he believes in his preparations more than anything. Carlsen can hence try and gain something this way( although should be played only if confident with one's preparations). Carlsen can play 4. g3 also although only with proper preparations and if he is satisfied if he gets an edge or preferable position out of the opening. I think he should definitely look at some of Mr. Avrukh's suggestions in his book as Avrukh has worked in the past with Caruana and may well be one of his helpers!
2.) According to me, Caruana should not play the Siccilian Reversed. He should do 'A la Carlsen' against Carlsen! This will considerably limit Carlsen's preparations who would be prepared extensively against 1...e5 . Caruana is known to stick with his opening repertoire yet this may just be a 'smart' strategy by Caruana. This way the game would most probably transpose to the QGD wherein Caruana has been able to neutralise both of Carlsen's White games thus far. Hence, I think 1...e6 can be a good idea. Carlsen can reply to that with 2. e4 yet that is not the most principled option and Caruana can then equalise with ease after 2... d5. Carlsen may play 2. Nf3 d5 3. g3 Nf6 4. Bg2 Be7 5.0-0 0-0 yet Caruana can play this variation over the board as I am pretty sure Carlsen will not expect 1....e6 tomorrow. Knowing Caruana however, I think he will stick to the most principled 1... e5 unless told not to by his team. Caruana may fear 2. Nc3 d5 3. d4 Nf6( wherein he prepared the Nimzo-Indian which is not possible now!) yet I think he can play this especially as opening preparations would not be as important anymore. Moreover, I do not believe Carlsen would have looked into this move order deeply thus far.
3.) Carlsen may even try 1. Nf3 d5 2. g3 g6 3. Bg2 Bg7 3. d4 Nf6 4. 0-0 0-0 5. c4. However, Caruana has clearly prioritised it for the World Championship Match. As noted earlier, opening theory is not so important in faster time controls and hence this can be an interesting try to get Caruana thinking. Carlsen should however play this only if he is confident in his preparations. However, he can get outprepared as has been true in much of his White games thus far in the Championship.
4.) Carlsen can play 1. e4 and allow the Petroff only if he and his team finds an 'opening bomb' for the games. If not, he should avoid the opening catastrophe that befall him in Game 6 and Game 11. He can go for the QGD only with concrete preparations and this is again something I think he would like to avoid- playing straight to Caruana's hands who has shown very good preparations in the Petroff and the Queen's Gambit thus far. This has been the way things have happened thus far yet I think Carslen has a clear strategy in the Rapid section judging by his willingness to play a Rapid Tiebreaker.
Here are two important strategies one must keep in mind:
1.) Always try to have more time on the clock:- This is extremely important in Rapid time control to provoke more mistakes and to take over the Initiative. The opponent often crumbles when having less time on the clock especially at faster time control.
2.) Playing practice- It is extremely important to play consistently at home in order to have a 'good feel of the position' and to not think too long or play too quickly at the very same time. This can be an issue especially after playing Classical time control for over 2 weeks. This is especially important for Caruana who has not played as much Speed Chess as has Carlsen over the years.
3.) Stamina- While Caruana looks to have more stamina than Carlsen also claiming that he could play some classical games more if that were so, Carlsen was looking pretty exhausted throughout the match in the Press-conferences. I expect this to be a major battle of physical fitness, especially if it comes down to Game 4 or the Blitz. Caruana should try to take advantage of this by strong concrete preparations which would get Carlsen thinking from the moment 'go'. Carlsen is going to be 29 on 30 November this year. Alexei Shirov wrote in his book ' Fire on Board' that players struggle when nearing the age of 30 as the body does not have the same physical resources it earlier had and that one should exert oneself more judiciously when nearing this age. This factor seems to be favouring Caruana and he may not be as big an underdog if it goes down to Blitz as most people predict.
Carlsen picked up White and will have White for Games 1 and 3 of the Rapid Tiebreaker. Looking at his expression however, I think he wanted Black for the 1st and 3rd game to put maximum pressure in the 2nd and 4th game like in New York, 2016. Credits: Niki Riga
Here is what I think will happen in the openings wherein Caruana has White:
1.) He would stick with 1. e4 which is serving him well in the match- the last American World Champion Fischer called 1. e4 ' Best by Test' and Caruana has stuck to that in the match thus far, with reasonable success. I expect him to do the same now. One of Carlsen's strategies thus far in the match has been to limit ' Team Caruana White preparation' by playing the Siccilian Defense. Now Team Caruana has quiet some things prepared against the Sveshnikov and some ideas in the Rossolimo. However, Carlsen can play 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. d4 cd4 4. Nd4 Nf6 5. Nc3 e6!? move order to avoid considerable preparation by Caruana yet should play it only if he analyses the deviations quiet well. I do not expect it as the character of fight there is something I am sure Carslen would not like to get into. I expect Carlsen to go for something different- 1... e5 would be playing straight to Caruana's World Championship preparations. This is usually Carlsen's main move against 1. e4 . Carlsen can play this now that it is Rapid and Blitz and hence confuse Caruana considerably yet both players would then be considerably prepared. Carlsen- as it is his mainstay repertoire and Caruana because he prepared this quiet extensively for the World Chess Championship Match. Caruana may not expect it and his ideas may not be as 'fresh in the mind' after having faced the Siccilian almost throughout although the same holds true for Carlsen. He can however prepare it consistently with Black and play many training games with it within his camp to get a strong footing. Also 1... e5 is his main repertoire against 1. e4. This can be a clear-cut strategy to focus more on his White games and thus force Caruana to think hence trying to get some 'White ideas' into the game which has thus far not happened much throughout the Match.
2.) The French Defense looks most probable to me as faster time controls reduce the importance of opening theory. Carlsen played this as a surprise v/s Caruana earlier in 2012 with success and would repeat it according to me. Caruana has arguably played every opening under the sun against both 1. e4 and 1. d4 so would have experience yet would not expect this line. Carlsen can hence wish to surprise Caruana with this line and this can be used especially in situations when Carlsen is trailing the match.
This is something we are going to see tomorrow- Carlsen facing Caruana in the World Championship Match for the last time in 2018! Caruana's focused preparations or Carlsen's belief in tiebreaks? My mind says Carlsen but the heart wants Caruana! Also Carlsen's physical preparations would come under scrutiny tomorrow. Credits: World Chess
3.) Carlsen can play 1...c6( the Caro-Kann) to surprise Caruana yet would probably avoid it as Caruana is confident even when he is 'out of book' compared to other top players. This also goes on to explain why Carlsen has not played this opening thus far in the match. I do not think Carlsen will play this. Carlsen will try 1...e5 according to me in all likeliness, although a lot also depends on the match situations one is faced into. Example- Carlsen played 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 d6 3. d4 cd4 4. Nd4 Nf6 5. f3 with White when a draw would have been sufficient to win the match in the 2016 World Chess Championship Match Rapid Game 4 although he would not have prepared it extensively. He played it to pose practical problems to Black. He even allowed repetition at some point as a draw would be sufficient to be the World Chess Champion. Carlsen according to me should play 1...e5 (only with proper preparations) and focus on his White games. He can play the French Defense which would not be expected by Caruana yet that would be at the behest of taking 'off' time to prepare White ideas. The advantage against Caruana with playing French is that Caruana has one main repertoire against it and is very loyal to it and with very good preparations! This can however make his repertoire an easier target according to me.
4.) I do not expect any major strategy overhaul from Caruana and think he will definitely give Carlsen a 'run for the money'. The momentum being with Caruana( great preparation in Game 11+ a narrow lucky escape in Game 12) seems him as equally balanced with Carlsen in the Playoff.
I would love for Caruana to win although do admit Carlsen to be the slight favourite. I wish my track record of 9.0/12.0 goes up tomorrow also yet let us keep our fingers crossed!
5.) If the game exceeds the Rapids, I think both players will try to 'fine-tune' their ideas thus played even further yet that what they play would also be influenced by the match conditions( must-win situation or situation where a draw would be sufficient for Championship). Caruana can play the Benoni Defense with Black if he would want any sharp fight yet his opening choices would again be considerably influenced by the match situations.
I have my own National Junior Chess Championships 2018 coming up from tomorrow onwards and would hence not be able to give any more predictions and posts. I will however try to give it once my tournament ends on 6 December.
Thanks!
Comments
Post a Comment