Good afternoon to all! Wish that you all are having a very good day! The World Chess Championship Match 2018 is nearing it's completion with both players tied at 4-4 games a piece with 4 rounds still left. Today is Game 9 which will begin at 8:30 PM IST. Carlsen is White and here is why I think he has an advantage in the upcoming battles:
1.) Carlsen has a very good Tiebreaker score. This for me indicates that Carlsen choses his openings very accurately in accordance to his opponent which poses more practical problems to them and Carlsen puts consistent pressure hence getting the most of the situation. Carlsen has an enviable record having won Tiebreakers against : (Maxime Vachier Lagrave twice won 1.5-0.5; once last year and once in late 2015, won against Anish Giri earlier this year 1.5-0.5, one World Championship 2016 on Tiebreakers 3-1, won against Karjakin, once won against Caruana in 2012 2-0, won against Yu Yangyi 2-0 in Qatar Masters 2015, won against Naiditsch in Grenke Classical 2015 etc.). What this proves is that he can play according to the current situation. Some more clear examples- playing the Marshall Opening when playing only for a draw in the second game against MVL in tiebreakers which worked wonders. He used the Grunfeld against M.V.L when he was already very tired to score a convincing victory in the 1st game of their tiebreaker in 2015. Against Giri, a player who is theoritically amongst the best prepared, Carlsen played 1. Nf3 to ask Giri which setup he would chose (hence gaining some time advantage) which again shows good 'situationism'
2.) Carlsen is a very good Blitz and Rapid player. He is Currently World No.1 in all three formats of the game and Caruana is World No. 8 in Rapid almost 100 points lower than Carlsen. In Blitz, Carlsen is more than 150 ELO points higher rated than Caruana. For it to come down to Blitz, apart from drawing the regular part of the match 12-12, they would also have to draw their Rapid encounter 2-2 after which Caruana's chances look very difficult. Even Nakamura said that Caruana's chances in Blitz are very difficult.
Hence Carlsen's tiebreaker skills and his accurate choice of openings are an extremely difficult combination to match. You can see the Live Ratings here: https://2700chess.com/ Also if Caruana wins a game in the Classical Game in the Championship, he would be World No.1 (at least for the day).
A wounded lion is one most dangerous is what Carlsen might want to prove to the whole world. Credits: David Llada/Twitter
One of the reasons why Caruana has done so well in this World Championship Match has been that he has been able to use most of his preparations for his match( in Game 2, Game 3, Game 4, Game 6, Game 7 and Game 8- a total of 6 times out of 8!). This may suggest that my first point may no longer hold as true. However, this being a case I expect Carlsen to tweak his opening repertoire quiet a bit for his remaining White's (2 Whites for both the sides are remaining in the Classical portion of the Match) to get the momentum back on track.
This trend in the World Championship Match also makes me reminisce Sergey Karjakin's words that in some cases Rustam Kasimdzhanov( Caruana's coach) can be more effecient than Peter Hienne Nielsen( Carlsen's coach). Both of them earlier worked together for Team Anand but then left after World Championship 2012. This may go on to mean that they do know quiet a lot about each other and would chose their match strategies accordingly. Karjakin also has had done some work with Kasimdzhanov which means he knows about their ways of working quiet a bit. Seeing this trend, I do believe that Team Caruana has been more successful than Team Carlsen thus far.
Now on to the predictions! With Carlsen not being able to limit opponent's preparations for the World Championship thus far, I think that Carlsen is going to play 1. c4 today in order to surprise Caruana. Caruana has shown impeccable preparations in the QGD and I think Carlsen should not challenge him here again( also because Caruana's leaked files displayed 10...Re8 which Caruana has not played thus far). Playing 1. c4 has the following advantages:
1.) Caruana most likely does not expect 1. c4. He also got into very meagre pressure in Game 4 of the World Championship Match after 1. c4 and Magnus has not repeated the opening again. This makes me feel that Caruana would most likely not expect it.
2.) Carlsen can prepare improvements over Game 4 catching Caruana off-guard and also restrain his preparations to a very good extent. This would most probably work if Caruana plays 1...e5. Another thing that Carlsen can try is to play 1. c4 e5 2. Nc3 Nf6 3. Nf3 Nc6 4.e3!? instead of 4. g3( played in game 4). Recently, Boris Avrukh published a book suggesting 1.c4 e5. He here continues with 4... Bb4 in his book with 5. Qc2 with idea of 6.Nd5 answered with 6...Bc3 7. Qc3 Qe7 7. a3 d5! 8. d4 ed4 9. Nd4 Nd4 10. Qd4 c5 https://www.modern-chess.com/en/chess-databases/database=27 is the preview to the article suggesting Avrukh's choices. Also Mr. Avrukh has worked with Caruana in the past( much before this championship) and this may suggest that he is also a part of ' Team Caruana' although nothing is for sure regarding this assumption. Also important to see is that if Carlsen does consider Avrukh to be part of 'Team Caruana'. then Carlsen will try to check that book and look for as many improvements as possible. As the popular opinion goes- ' The top players chose opening series as a base for their repertoires'. Only as a base of their repertoire. During the 2014 Olympiad Parimarjan Negi released his famous 1. e4 book against the Philidor, the Caro-Kann and the French Defence. During the tournament itself, Anish Giri, one of the best players in the world saw that book, used one of it's suggestions and played a very well played game. This shows how quick these top players are in incorporating ideas and how serious they are about opening preparations. http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1769579
Caruana has taken on c3 in his last outing in this variation and has played this variation quiet some times this year. He has played it in various important competitions and taking here would be followed by 6. Qc3 when Carlsen can press on without much counterplay in positions he is known for playing. This way Caruana's 'early' opening surprises would not be there as much. Credits: Modern-chess.com
3.) I now am quiet sure seeing Caruana's match strategy that he has prepared the Nimzo-Indian Defense against 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3. This is in consonance with Caruana's overall strategy of playing Strong Principled chess and of remaining solid with the Black pieces. He has played the QGD against 1. d4 consistently and the Petroff against 1. e4. He also faced 1. c4 with 1.... e5 which is principled play. I am sure Carlsen should not try to fall in Caruana's preparation for another White game like has happened in almost all of his games, except arguably in Game 4. This is one of the reason I think Caruana does not play 1. c4 e6- to prevent against 2. d4 d5 3. Nc3 Nf6 4. Bf4!? This move order is prevented with the option of the Nimzo-Indian!
4.) Caruana is an extremely principled player. Carlsen can play 1. c4 being quiet sure that Caruana will reply with the English Four Knights 4...Bb4 and only deviate later on. Until now, Caruana has mainly repeated his openings regularly( except for in Game 8). Carlsen can help try and out-prepare Caruana this way.
5.) Momentum at the moment is definitely on Caruana's side with chances in 2 of the last 3 games and there being talks of Carlsen's team not being able to churn out effecient ideas and coming under scathing attack. At this moment, a turn of strategy can be especially frustrating to face for the World Championship Challenger. I also believe that Carlsen would try to put as much psychological pressure as possible on Caruana in his upcoming White games.
I hence expect 1. c4 today. Carlsen can play 4. g3 in this variation also but only as long as he is able to find anything tangible against Caruana's setup which looks difficult to happen to me. I do not expect Carlsen to play 1. Nf3 d5 2. g3 g6 3. Bg2 Bg7 4. d4 as Caruana has definitely prepared it quiet a bit for the match and I do not expect Carlsen to check Caruana's preparations here, especially after the way his earlier White games have gone. The Petroff can be seen but I think if Carlsen plays it, he should try to face the Petroff with 3. Nc3 leading to the positions seen in Caruana's computer screen( 9...Nf6) been analyzed properly. I do not expect that to happen much however. I think Carlsen will definitely try to press on in an equal position also to try and get the Initiative in his favour yet all that remains to be seen.
If Carlsen plays 1.d4, I expect him to challenge Caruana in the Nimzo-Indian. However, knowing his limited repertoire in the 4. Qc2 line, I expect Caruana would have put up some work in this line also and would be adequately prepared with 4...d5 here. All that remains to be seen yet I have little doubt that Carlsen 'should' open with 1.c4 today. Today is a game followed by a game tomorrow while 23rd is a Rest Day. After that, Game 11 would be followed by a rest day and Game 12 would also be followed by a Rest Day( in case of potential tiebreakers).
Thanks!
1.) Carlsen has a very good Tiebreaker score. This for me indicates that Carlsen choses his openings very accurately in accordance to his opponent which poses more practical problems to them and Carlsen puts consistent pressure hence getting the most of the situation. Carlsen has an enviable record having won Tiebreakers against : (Maxime Vachier Lagrave twice won 1.5-0.5; once last year and once in late 2015, won against Anish Giri earlier this year 1.5-0.5, one World Championship 2016 on Tiebreakers 3-1, won against Karjakin, once won against Caruana in 2012 2-0, won against Yu Yangyi 2-0 in Qatar Masters 2015, won against Naiditsch in Grenke Classical 2015 etc.). What this proves is that he can play according to the current situation. Some more clear examples- playing the Marshall Opening when playing only for a draw in the second game against MVL in tiebreakers which worked wonders. He used the Grunfeld against M.V.L when he was already very tired to score a convincing victory in the 1st game of their tiebreaker in 2015. Against Giri, a player who is theoritically amongst the best prepared, Carlsen played 1. Nf3 to ask Giri which setup he would chose (hence gaining some time advantage) which again shows good 'situationism'
2.) Carlsen is a very good Blitz and Rapid player. He is Currently World No.1 in all three formats of the game and Caruana is World No. 8 in Rapid almost 100 points lower than Carlsen. In Blitz, Carlsen is more than 150 ELO points higher rated than Caruana. For it to come down to Blitz, apart from drawing the regular part of the match 12-12, they would also have to draw their Rapid encounter 2-2 after which Caruana's chances look very difficult. Even Nakamura said that Caruana's chances in Blitz are very difficult.
Hence Carlsen's tiebreaker skills and his accurate choice of openings are an extremely difficult combination to match. You can see the Live Ratings here: https://2700chess.com/ Also if Caruana wins a game in the Classical Game in the Championship, he would be World No.1 (at least for the day).
A wounded lion is one most dangerous is what Carlsen might want to prove to the whole world. Credits: David Llada/Twitter
One of the reasons why Caruana has done so well in this World Championship Match has been that he has been able to use most of his preparations for his match( in Game 2, Game 3, Game 4, Game 6, Game 7 and Game 8- a total of 6 times out of 8!). This may suggest that my first point may no longer hold as true. However, this being a case I expect Carlsen to tweak his opening repertoire quiet a bit for his remaining White's (2 Whites for both the sides are remaining in the Classical portion of the Match) to get the momentum back on track.
This trend in the World Championship Match also makes me reminisce Sergey Karjakin's words that in some cases Rustam Kasimdzhanov( Caruana's coach) can be more effecient than Peter Hienne Nielsen( Carlsen's coach). Both of them earlier worked together for Team Anand but then left after World Championship 2012. This may go on to mean that they do know quiet a lot about each other and would chose their match strategies accordingly. Karjakin also has had done some work with Kasimdzhanov which means he knows about their ways of working quiet a bit. Seeing this trend, I do believe that Team Caruana has been more successful than Team Carlsen thus far.
Now on to the predictions! With Carlsen not being able to limit opponent's preparations for the World Championship thus far, I think that Carlsen is going to play 1. c4 today in order to surprise Caruana. Caruana has shown impeccable preparations in the QGD and I think Carlsen should not challenge him here again( also because Caruana's leaked files displayed 10...Re8 which Caruana has not played thus far). Playing 1. c4 has the following advantages:
1.) Caruana most likely does not expect 1. c4. He also got into very meagre pressure in Game 4 of the World Championship Match after 1. c4 and Magnus has not repeated the opening again. This makes me feel that Caruana would most likely not expect it.
2.) Carlsen can prepare improvements over Game 4 catching Caruana off-guard and also restrain his preparations to a very good extent. This would most probably work if Caruana plays 1...e5. Another thing that Carlsen can try is to play 1. c4 e5 2. Nc3 Nf6 3. Nf3 Nc6 4.e3!? instead of 4. g3( played in game 4). Recently, Boris Avrukh published a book suggesting 1.c4 e5. He here continues with 4... Bb4 in his book with 5. Qc2 with idea of 6.Nd5 answered with 6...Bc3 7. Qc3 Qe7 7. a3 d5! 8. d4 ed4 9. Nd4 Nd4 10. Qd4 c5 https://www.modern-chess.com/en/chess-databases/database=27 is the preview to the article suggesting Avrukh's choices. Also Mr. Avrukh has worked with Caruana in the past( much before this championship) and this may suggest that he is also a part of ' Team Caruana' although nothing is for sure regarding this assumption. Also important to see is that if Carlsen does consider Avrukh to be part of 'Team Caruana'. then Carlsen will try to check that book and look for as many improvements as possible. As the popular opinion goes- ' The top players chose opening series as a base for their repertoires'. Only as a base of their repertoire. During the 2014 Olympiad Parimarjan Negi released his famous 1. e4 book against the Philidor, the Caro-Kann and the French Defence. During the tournament itself, Anish Giri, one of the best players in the world saw that book, used one of it's suggestions and played a very well played game. This shows how quick these top players are in incorporating ideas and how serious they are about opening preparations. http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1769579
Caruana has taken on c3 in his last outing in this variation and has played this variation quiet some times this year. He has played it in various important competitions and taking here would be followed by 6. Qc3 when Carlsen can press on without much counterplay in positions he is known for playing. This way Caruana's 'early' opening surprises would not be there as much. Credits: Modern-chess.com
3.) I now am quiet sure seeing Caruana's match strategy that he has prepared the Nimzo-Indian Defense against 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3. This is in consonance with Caruana's overall strategy of playing Strong Principled chess and of remaining solid with the Black pieces. He has played the QGD against 1. d4 consistently and the Petroff against 1. e4. He also faced 1. c4 with 1.... e5 which is principled play. I am sure Carlsen should not try to fall in Caruana's preparation for another White game like has happened in almost all of his games, except arguably in Game 4. This is one of the reason I think Caruana does not play 1. c4 e6- to prevent against 2. d4 d5 3. Nc3 Nf6 4. Bf4!? This move order is prevented with the option of the Nimzo-Indian!
4.) Caruana is an extremely principled player. Carlsen can play 1. c4 being quiet sure that Caruana will reply with the English Four Knights 4...Bb4 and only deviate later on. Until now, Caruana has mainly repeated his openings regularly( except for in Game 8). Carlsen can help try and out-prepare Caruana this way.
5.) Momentum at the moment is definitely on Caruana's side with chances in 2 of the last 3 games and there being talks of Carlsen's team not being able to churn out effecient ideas and coming under scathing attack. At this moment, a turn of strategy can be especially frustrating to face for the World Championship Challenger. I also believe that Carlsen would try to put as much psychological pressure as possible on Caruana in his upcoming White games.
I hence expect 1. c4 today. Carlsen can play 4. g3 in this variation also but only as long as he is able to find anything tangible against Caruana's setup which looks difficult to happen to me. I do not expect Carlsen to play 1. Nf3 d5 2. g3 g6 3. Bg2 Bg7 4. d4 as Caruana has definitely prepared it quiet a bit for the match and I do not expect Carlsen to check Caruana's preparations here, especially after the way his earlier White games have gone. The Petroff can be seen but I think if Carlsen plays it, he should try to face the Petroff with 3. Nc3 leading to the positions seen in Caruana's computer screen( 9...Nf6) been analyzed properly. I do not expect that to happen much however. I think Carlsen will definitely try to press on in an equal position also to try and get the Initiative in his favour yet all that remains to be seen.
If Carlsen plays 1.d4, I expect him to challenge Caruana in the Nimzo-Indian. However, knowing his limited repertoire in the 4. Qc2 line, I expect Caruana would have put up some work in this line also and would be adequately prepared with 4...d5 here. All that remains to be seen yet I have little doubt that Carlsen 'should' open with 1.c4 today. Today is a game followed by a game tomorrow while 23rd is a Rest Day. After that, Game 11 would be followed by a rest day and Game 12 would also be followed by a Rest Day( in case of potential tiebreakers).
Thanks!
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