Good evening to all! The 6th round of the World Chess Championship will be underway in more than half an hour now! Am happy that the last two of my predictions have been correct and followed the trends I thought would come on board. Carlsen now has two White's in Game 6( today) and Game 7( on 18 November). Carlsen would want to maximise his two White's as that would give him a significant advantage in the match which is of only 12 games in total with tied scores( 6-6) resulting in a Rapid(25+10) 4 game tiebreaker to decide the victor.
This is also the first game that Caruana would be playing after the 'Videogate incident' with Caruana's opening files being named by a Youtube mishap by St.Louis Chess Club. I gave my inputs on how this could affect Caruana tremendously titled under ' Game 4- All Draws'. Carlsen has thus far opened with 1. d4 as well as with 1. c4. I do not expect him to open with either of them knowing that Caruana has extensive preparations against 1. d4 while opening with 1. e4 does not seem reasonable to me also as Caruana would play his reliable Petroff Defense. Carlsen can play it to pose practical problems to Caruana yet as I have noted earlier, one of Carlsen's main strengths in World Championship Matches has been to limit opponent's preparation to a considerable degree. I hence do not expect Carlsen to open with 1. e4 although he can open with it if he finds an opening bomb. One line which we all saw in the 'Game 4- All Draw picture' was the line Fianchetto Grunfeld- 9. Nd4. I believe Carlsen will open with 1. Nf3 for the following reasons:
1.) With 1. Nf3 Team Caruana would be in a spot for the next and even future games as Carlsen could play almost anything again and because they are more likely to be surprised by Carlsen's preparations than Caruana springing in his own surprise. As was noted in the Game 4 report, Fianchetto Grunfeld can arise on the board via the move order 1. Nf3 d5 2.g3 g6 3. Bg2 Bg7 4. d4 ( 4. 0-0 has been played by Magnus twice in WCC 2013 yet it did not bring the desired results but can be played again maybe although not as likely.) 4...Nf6 5.0-0 0-0 6. c4 dc4 7. Na3 dc4 8. Nc4 cd4 9. Nd4. This quiet possibly can be the topic of discussion in Caruana's leaked files!
As I have said earlier, Carlsen is extremely street-smart and plays what suits his own interests most of the time. The fact that there was only one variation in the Fianchetto Grunfeld( at least what was visible) it may even mean that Caruana has not prepared it as deeply as he would have wished as he did not consider the prospects of it appearing on the board as much.
I am quiet sure of Carlsen beginning with 1. Nf3 today. If he plays 1. e4, Caruana will reply with the Petroff, for which Carlsen can play 3.Nc3!? the 'Caruana files' showed 9...Nf6 in the opening file name itself! This may lead Carlsen to a lot of information inside Caruana camp. If Carlsen starts with 1. e4, I expect this opening today. Also possible for Carlsen is to play 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3. Nc3 for these reasons:
1.) Check what Caruana has in mind- the Benoni, the QGD or the Nimzo-Indian with Black here. Also playing 4. Qc2 against Caruana can be unpleasant as I had shown in my earlier opening predictions with Carlsen having White.
Carlsen can play 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 d5 (similiar to 2nd game) 4. Bg5!? with the idea Nbd2. It is not as innocous as it seems and Caruana has already faced it earlier this year. It can also limit Caruana preparations considerably. Caruana is one player not known to be as good with Classical Knowledge as Carlsen and hence I do not see him playing 4...Be7 but in playing 4....dc4 with the idea of 4...Bb4. Knowing about him being more aware of classical knowledge than Caruana, Carlsen can play 1. d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 d5 4. Nc3 Be7 4. Bg5!? to get the game to more placid waters. This however is again one of the major popularly played alternatives and I do not see it forthcoming.
One thing I am very sure of however is that today is going to be an extremely important day for the whole World Championship- very much like Game 7 of Carlsen- Anand Sochi 2014.
Very often, one side has to defend passively in minus positions and that often turns out to be the crucial half point. This psychology is very well highlighted in the following documentary which I would surely reccomend to the readers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWz2hqjBbrg.
I almost do not think Carlsen will play 1.c4 but if he will, I expect 1.c4 e5 2.Nc3 Nf6 3.Nf3 Nc6 4.a3!? like Topalov played against Giri in Shamkir Chess 2018(2). I find it very interesting especially as Caruana would definitely be caught off-guard although it may not exactly be as difficult to face and may dissipate in some time like yesterday's game. This however can be played in order to 'trick and deceive Caruana by not playing it again in the next game! It would also be a trick to see how Caruana will play when against an opening surprise which he did not expect- something Carlsen has not been able to pose so far in this World Championship Match.
Today is a very important day!
This is also the first game that Caruana would be playing after the 'Videogate incident' with Caruana's opening files being named by a Youtube mishap by St.Louis Chess Club. I gave my inputs on how this could affect Caruana tremendously titled under ' Game 4- All Draws'. Carlsen has thus far opened with 1. d4 as well as with 1. c4. I do not expect him to open with either of them knowing that Caruana has extensive preparations against 1. d4 while opening with 1. e4 does not seem reasonable to me also as Caruana would play his reliable Petroff Defense. Carlsen can play it to pose practical problems to Caruana yet as I have noted earlier, one of Carlsen's main strengths in World Championship Matches has been to limit opponent's preparation to a considerable degree. I hence do not expect Carlsen to open with 1. e4 although he can open with it if he finds an opening bomb. One line which we all saw in the 'Game 4- All Draw picture' was the line Fianchetto Grunfeld- 9. Nd4. I believe Carlsen will open with 1. Nf3 for the following reasons:
1.) With 1. Nf3 Team Caruana would be in a spot for the next and even future games as Carlsen could play almost anything again and because they are more likely to be surprised by Carlsen's preparations than Caruana springing in his own surprise. As was noted in the Game 4 report, Fianchetto Grunfeld can arise on the board via the move order 1. Nf3 d5 2.g3 g6 3. Bg2 Bg7 4. d4 ( 4. 0-0 has been played by Magnus twice in WCC 2013 yet it did not bring the desired results but can be played again maybe although not as likely.) 4...Nf6 5.0-0 0-0 6. c4 dc4 7. Na3 dc4 8. Nc4 cd4 9. Nd4. This quiet possibly can be the topic of discussion in Caruana's leaked files!
As I have said earlier, Carlsen is extremely street-smart and plays what suits his own interests most of the time. The fact that there was only one variation in the Fianchetto Grunfeld( at least what was visible) it may even mean that Caruana has not prepared it as deeply as he would have wished as he did not consider the prospects of it appearing on the board as much.
I am quiet sure of Carlsen beginning with 1. Nf3 today. If he plays 1. e4, Caruana will reply with the Petroff, for which Carlsen can play 3.Nc3!? the 'Caruana files' showed 9...Nf6 in the opening file name itself! This may lead Carlsen to a lot of information inside Caruana camp. If Carlsen starts with 1. e4, I expect this opening today. Also possible for Carlsen is to play 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3. Nc3 for these reasons:
1.) Check what Caruana has in mind- the Benoni, the QGD or the Nimzo-Indian with Black here. Also playing 4. Qc2 against Caruana can be unpleasant as I had shown in my earlier opening predictions with Carlsen having White.
Carlsen can play 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 d5 (similiar to 2nd game) 4. Bg5!? with the idea Nbd2. It is not as innocous as it seems and Caruana has already faced it earlier this year. It can also limit Caruana preparations considerably. Caruana is one player not known to be as good with Classical Knowledge as Carlsen and hence I do not see him playing 4...Be7 but in playing 4....dc4 with the idea of 4...Bb4. Knowing about him being more aware of classical knowledge than Caruana, Carlsen can play 1. d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 d5 4. Nc3 Be7 4. Bg5!? to get the game to more placid waters. This however is again one of the major popularly played alternatives and I do not see it forthcoming.
One thing I am very sure of however is that today is going to be an extremely important day for the whole World Championship- very much like Game 7 of Carlsen- Anand Sochi 2014.
Very often, one side has to defend passively in minus positions and that often turns out to be the crucial half point. This psychology is very well highlighted in the following documentary which I would surely reccomend to the readers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWz2hqjBbrg.
I almost do not think Carlsen will play 1.c4 but if he will, I expect 1.c4 e5 2.Nc3 Nf6 3.Nf3 Nc6 4.a3!? like Topalov played against Giri in Shamkir Chess 2018(2). I find it very interesting especially as Caruana would definitely be caught off-guard although it may not exactly be as difficult to face and may dissipate in some time like yesterday's game. This however can be played in order to 'trick and deceive Caruana by not playing it again in the next game! It would also be a trick to see how Caruana will play when against an opening surprise which he did not expect- something Carlsen has not been able to pose so far in this World Championship Match.
Today is a very important day!
Comments
Post a Comment