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Game 4 Opening Predictions

Good afternoon all!
As I noted in my previous article, the World Chess Championship is turning out to be very exciting! After today's game, tomorrow is a rest day while the games will again resume on 15th. Carlsen has the White pieces for today's game while they interchange colours for the games on 15th( Carlsen Black on 15th and Caruana Black on 16th). This is again to be followed by a rest day after which Carlsen would again have the White pieces! Hence, for the next four games, Carlsen has 3 Whites!

As I noted, it is very much possible that Mr. Gelfand is part of ' Team Magnus' and he has been playing 1.c4 quiet frequently against elite opposite despite not having as positive results. Also important to know is that the players would be relying on using a lot more than just one second for the match and hence it would not be only one player's advice whom they would be following.
 It is possible that Team Magnus may have 1.c4 as a surprise for which Fabi however, would simply reply 1...Nf6. This can then be followed up with 2.Nf3 e6 3.g3 after which there is a plethora of possibilities for Black. 'Fabi' is likely to continue with 3...d5 and White can play 4.Bg2 Be7 5.d4 0-0 6.Nc3!? although Fabi would have not prepared it as specifically I believe. Fabi may also reply to 1.c4 with 1...e5 as he likes to play Principled chess mostly, yet I do believe that 1...Nf6 would be in consonance with his reply to 1.d4.
There is also a possibility for White to play 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3!? and to know see if White plays either 3...Bb4, 3...d5 or even 3...c5( as Fabi used earlier this year and prepared for the Candidates 2018.) This can be extremely beneficial as it would considerably help see what Caruana has in his store as his mainstay repertoire against 1.d4. Also important to note is that the 'wonderful chess psychologist' Carlsen puts on as much as practical pressure on his opponents consistenly as is possible which makes him a difficult match-player to face. https://chess24.com/en/read/news/boris-gulko-carlsen-a-wonderful-psychologist is a wonderful interview given much earlier explaining Carlsen's sustained dominance at the top of chess.
What's the Champion got is something everyone is eager to see tonight! Credits: Niki Riga
 I think that Carlsen should play this move order as 3...d5 can also be met with 4.Bf4 followed by 5.e3 followed by Nge2 in some cases as well. Those move order subteleties do not count for much actually though, except for against some concrete variations. Just reducing considerable amount of 'Caruana preparation' by not playing 1.e4 at all is also a plausible strategy and focusing only on 1.c4 and 1.d4. Another interesting strategy to face the Nimzo-Indian is to play 4.Qc2!? This can be pretty helpful because Caruana's choice against Mamedyarov earlier this year( 4...c5 5.dc5 0-0 5.g3 Na6 6.Bg2 Nc5 7.Nf3 Nce4 8.0-0 Nc3 9.bc3 Be7 10.e4) is something Caruana has played in the past too. His earlier coach Vladimir Chuchelov was a proponent of the variation 4..c5 5.dc5 Qc7!? which leads to Hedgehog positions but is not clear and convincing at all yet probably can be made to be playable after considerable effort. I do not see it as a major hindrance for today's game. If Caruana plays the way he played v/s Mamedyarov earlier this year, Carlsen can continue with the risk-free advantage he is known to play with. I think that instead of 7...Nce4, Caruana may focus his preparation to 7...b6!? 8.0-0 Bb7 9.0-0 which is extremely popular also and I believe more equal than 7...Nce4 wherein Black is the side struggling for equality mostly according to me.

The focused Caruana will have to reply on his opening preparations like in Round 2 quiet a bit to get through Game 4 unhindered! This promises to be exciting! Credits: Niki Riga

As I had noted in my previous article also, Carlsen sometimes plays an opening as a 'surprise' for the first game with either Black( definitely done in all previous World Championships)or White(done in WCC 2016, WCC 2014 and WCC 2013 as well!). However, 5.Bf4 aganst the QGD does not look to be a surprise to me at all! I think Carlsen 'should' go with 1.d4 only for today and play this concrete move order. Another plausible strategy is to play 1.e4 and look if Caruana goes for the Petroff or not. I do not believe Caruana will go for the Petroff( yet reducing considerable amount of preparations from Carlsen) but will go for 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6. Here Carlsen can play 3.Nc3!? and analyze it deeply to get Caruana 'off the prepared lines'. The negative aspect of this strategy is that these variations can sometimes prove to be toothless and not give much chances later in the game. I however greatly doubt that Carlsen would go for this.
 3.Bb5 Nf6!? I am pretty sure Caruana has prioritised this for the WCC preparations and Carlsen can then go for either 4.d3( preparing this extensively and not playing 4.0-0 Ne4 5.Re1 as positions here get frequently extremely dull). However, it is possible that Carlsen goes for the sedate 5.Re1 line to pose some practical problems as he had quiet some ideas up his sleeve in this in his 2016 Match v/s Karjakin. I am pretty sure this is what is going to happen today yet would keep my fingers crossed!
Thanks and stay tuned!

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