Skip to main content

Game 4 Opening Predictions

Good afternoon all!
As I noted in my previous article, the World Chess Championship is turning out to be very exciting! After today's game, tomorrow is a rest day while the games will again resume on 15th. Carlsen has the White pieces for today's game while they interchange colours for the games on 15th( Carlsen Black on 15th and Caruana Black on 16th). This is again to be followed by a rest day after which Carlsen would again have the White pieces! Hence, for the next four games, Carlsen has 3 Whites!

As I noted, it is very much possible that Mr. Gelfand is part of ' Team Magnus' and he has been playing 1.c4 quiet frequently against elite opposite despite not having as positive results. Also important to know is that the players would be relying on using a lot more than just one second for the match and hence it would not be only one player's advice whom they would be following.
 It is possible that Team Magnus may have 1.c4 as a surprise for which Fabi however, would simply reply 1...Nf6. This can then be followed up with 2.Nf3 e6 3.g3 after which there is a plethora of possibilities for Black. 'Fabi' is likely to continue with 3...d5 and White can play 4.Bg2 Be7 5.d4 0-0 6.Nc3!? although Fabi would have not prepared it as specifically I believe. Fabi may also reply to 1.c4 with 1...e5 as he likes to play Principled chess mostly, yet I do believe that 1...Nf6 would be in consonance with his reply to 1.d4.
There is also a possibility for White to play 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3!? and to know see if White plays either 3...Bb4, 3...d5 or even 3...c5( as Fabi used earlier this year and prepared for the Candidates 2018.) This can be extremely beneficial as it would considerably help see what Caruana has in his store as his mainstay repertoire against 1.d4. Also important to note is that the 'wonderful chess psychologist' Carlsen puts on as much as practical pressure on his opponents consistenly as is possible which makes him a difficult match-player to face. https://chess24.com/en/read/news/boris-gulko-carlsen-a-wonderful-psychologist is a wonderful interview given much earlier explaining Carlsen's sustained dominance at the top of chess.
What's the Champion got is something everyone is eager to see tonight! Credits: Niki Riga
 I think that Carlsen should play this move order as 3...d5 can also be met with 4.Bf4 followed by 5.e3 followed by Nge2 in some cases as well. Those move order subteleties do not count for much actually though, except for against some concrete variations. Just reducing considerable amount of 'Caruana preparation' by not playing 1.e4 at all is also a plausible strategy and focusing only on 1.c4 and 1.d4. Another interesting strategy to face the Nimzo-Indian is to play 4.Qc2!? This can be pretty helpful because Caruana's choice against Mamedyarov earlier this year( 4...c5 5.dc5 0-0 5.g3 Na6 6.Bg2 Nc5 7.Nf3 Nce4 8.0-0 Nc3 9.bc3 Be7 10.e4) is something Caruana has played in the past too. His earlier coach Vladimir Chuchelov was a proponent of the variation 4..c5 5.dc5 Qc7!? which leads to Hedgehog positions but is not clear and convincing at all yet probably can be made to be playable after considerable effort. I do not see it as a major hindrance for today's game. If Caruana plays the way he played v/s Mamedyarov earlier this year, Carlsen can continue with the risk-free advantage he is known to play with. I think that instead of 7...Nce4, Caruana may focus his preparation to 7...b6!? 8.0-0 Bb7 9.0-0 which is extremely popular also and I believe more equal than 7...Nce4 wherein Black is the side struggling for equality mostly according to me.

The focused Caruana will have to reply on his opening preparations like in Round 2 quiet a bit to get through Game 4 unhindered! This promises to be exciting! Credits: Niki Riga

As I had noted in my previous article also, Carlsen sometimes plays an opening as a 'surprise' for the first game with either Black( definitely done in all previous World Championships)or White(done in WCC 2016, WCC 2014 and WCC 2013 as well!). However, 5.Bf4 aganst the QGD does not look to be a surprise to me at all! I think Carlsen 'should' go with 1.d4 only for today and play this concrete move order. Another plausible strategy is to play 1.e4 and look if Caruana goes for the Petroff or not. I do not believe Caruana will go for the Petroff( yet reducing considerable amount of preparations from Carlsen) but will go for 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6. Here Carlsen can play 3.Nc3!? and analyze it deeply to get Caruana 'off the prepared lines'. The negative aspect of this strategy is that these variations can sometimes prove to be toothless and not give much chances later in the game. I however greatly doubt that Carlsen would go for this.
 3.Bb5 Nf6!? I am pretty sure Caruana has prioritised this for the WCC preparations and Carlsen can then go for either 4.d3( preparing this extensively and not playing 4.0-0 Ne4 5.Re1 as positions here get frequently extremely dull). However, it is possible that Carlsen goes for the sedate 5.Re1 line to pose some practical problems as he had quiet some ideas up his sleeve in this in his 2016 Match v/s Karjakin. I am pretty sure this is what is going to happen today yet would keep my fingers crossed!
Thanks and stay tuned!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Game 6- Caruana comes close but cannot find the killer.

Good afternoon to all! Wish that you are all having a good day! The sixth game of the 12-game World Chess Championship Match between Carlsen and Caruana again ended in a draw with Caruana pushing with the Black pieces. The Champion was on the verge of capitulation but was saved by a study-like fortress. The game again ended in a draw. My prediction for the game again ended up being correct!😃 I predicted Carlsen to play 1. e4 only if he had an 'opening bomb' which could not easily be exploded by Team Caruana. I had already told earlier about Carlsen being extremely street-smart and his opening choices being a result of a thorough examination of the opponent's ideas. Carlsen allowed the Petroff and played a variation which was not given in the 'Caruana files' in the now infamous 'Videogate incident' . My guess is that Carlsen wanted to play 1. Nf3 in Game 6 converting to the Fianchetto Grunfeld as discussed in the game 4 report yet was not convinced of the p...

Round 9- Caruana does a Karjakin

Good evening to all! Wish that all of you are having a good day!The heading pretty much sums up how the 9th round of the Championships went! Now let us look at the Round! Round 9: Carlsen v/s Caruana 1/2-1/2 Carlsen began with the English Four Knights Opening( as I had predicted) yet continued with 4. g3 instead of 4. e3 when I had suggested that any of these options can be good- based on where Carlsen has better preparations.  Carlsen showed a relatively new idea which however, Caruana had analysed in the comforts of his home: Carlsen played this relatively rare idea which quiet probably is not a part of  GM Avrukh's repertoire book mentioned in the Game 9 Predictions. This was done to get Caruana out of book( which did not manage to be the case) and to get a fresh position over the board and let the surprise factor guide him through for the rest of the game. Credits: Sagar Shah This is a rather typical move in the Siccilian Dragon with the Black pieces and hence Car...

Tiebreaker Predictions- The beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?

Good evening to all readers! The 12th game also ended in a draw and the Classical section of the match ended with all draws! This was the first time in the history of chess that such a thing came to happen. The Classical games are behind us. The Games will be played tomorrow ie. 28 November 2018 from 8:30 PM IST onwards. Here is the schedule of the games: 1.) 4 Rapid Games of 25 minutes +10 seconds increment 2.)2 games of 5 minutes+ 3 seconds increment 3.) 2 games of 5 minutes+ 3 seconds increment(again!) 4.) 2 games of 5 minutes+3 seconds increment(again!) 5.) Armageddon game where White has 5 minutes to Black's 4 and Black will become champion if the game ends in a draw. Tomorrow is the last day of the FIDE World Chess Championship 2018 which will decide the winner. Magnus Carslen is known for his excellence in faster time controls and has a good record v/s Fabiano Caruana in Blitz. Credits: Niki Riga Carlsen has won many playoffs in his career which and has a playof...