Good afternoon to all the readers!
The World Chess Championship 2018 is truly living up to it's hype! The 4th game also led to a draw. Carlsen opened with 1. c4 and Caruana replied with 1...e5! I had predicted earlier that this could be a strategy to limit Carlsen's preparations and not to play 1...e6 which would likely transpose to the Queen's Gambit Declined played in Game 2. Carlsen continued with the 2.Nc3 Nf6 3.Nf3 Nc6 4.g3. Here we would have another Rossolimo discussion had Caruana played 4...Bb4 with White being a tempo up as compared to Black!😊😉 Caruana however played 4...Bc5( which he has played recently also) and the game followed Wesley So-Fabiano Caruana Paris GCT 2018. Carlsen came up with the interesting 11.b4!? for which Caruana replied with 11...Bd6. Caruana hence again limitted considerable amount of Carlsen preparations as it would be logical for Caruana to play 4...Bb4 as he has played it more often and has been seeing Rossolimo more frequently during this match and quiet possibly, even before the match. Carlsen then played 12. Rb1 and got some edge. The main talking point of the game came on move 15: to play 15. b5 or not to. One can follow the games live or even recorded here: https://www.chessbomb.com/arena/2018-wcc
Caruana impressed with his preparations today. He looks ready in the picture too! In the background are the Arbiter( in the center). On the right looks to be a female version of Vassily Ivanchuk. On the left is Jan Gustafsson's girlfriend, a popular singer who made the inaugral move. Jan is rumoured to be in Team Carlsen.
Carlsen decided against playing it as he believed that 15. b5 would not give much winning chances after 15... ab5 16. ab5 Bd7 wherein he believed that the position would be very much holdable. However, here I again think that both the players are not testing their opponent's enough agreeing for draws when they could have pressurized their opponent's much further. This has also been talked about by me in my earlier articles and is something am sure both the teams would be telling their bosses- keep pressing and provoke mistakes!
However, there is another reason I believed Carlsen did not play 15. b5: A lot of times, engines suggest improving moves when the resulting slight edge does not seem as convenient. Carlsen is also known to borrow some ideas of the way engines sometimes think. After 15. Re1 Bd7! however the game was pretty much equal till the end and the players split the point. This was also the shortest game of the match so far.
Here is the link to the Post-game Press Conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7s_rh0_Clyo
The question about the video(in the press conference) relates to a video posted by the St. Louis Chess Club giving an 'inside WCC preparations video' wherein they showed some of Caruana's trainers( Kasimdhzhanov, Chirilla, Alejandro Ramirez, Lenier Dominguez etc.). However, there was one major mistake in the video:
https://twitter.com/hartmannchess/status/1062204133489426432/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1062204133489426432&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fchess24.com%2Fen%2Fread%2Fnews%2Fcarlsen-caruana-4-prep-lies-and-videotape. This picture( a part of the Youtube video series) shows Caruana's laptop. It was a little blurred but on inspection one can notice clear lines being mentioned: Fianchetto Grunfeld, QGD Bf4 10...Re8 line, Preparations against Aronian's 9.Bd3 (although it was actually 8.Bd3), some Petroff lines as well as analysis of the 2016 Carlsen-Karjakin Match( probably in more detail). The overall video also showed Caruana playing Basketball while he also said that he gives importance to Physical Sports and would be doing some on the Rest Day.
https://twitter.com/olimpiuurcan/status/1062334344193175552 is a more elaborate version of the video posted which has now been removed from Youtube.
Is Carlsen now feeling like the boss? The task now does look a lot harder for Caruana whatever one might say!
The St.Louis Club took off the video after some time and it is 'off' Youtube now. This also makes Caruana's response: "It's better to not talk about it" more understandable. Chirilla, a part of Team Caruana declined to comment on it so did two people from the St. Louis Chess Club. However, the all-important image is already there for all to see- on John Hartmann's twitter post. It has already done some damage, but how damaging could it actually be?
Here is how this could significantly help Team Carlsen and damage Team Caruana:
1. Carlsen now probably knows that Caruana is going to play the Petroff. One of Carlsen's strategy has been to not play 1. e4 hence rendering a lot of Caruana's opening preparations not as useful. However, Team Carlsen can prepare to use 1. e4 as a surprise later in the match( maybe in game 7 or game 9.) Caruana would probably be caught off-guard as Carlsen has not allowed 1. e4 e5 to appear on board at all until now!
2.) It shows that Caruana is quiet well-prepared on the QGD and Carlsen can hence play some other lines. Caruana can also play 10...Re8 instead of 10...Rd8 as played in Game 2).
3.) The picture also shows the Fianchetto Grunfeld. This can arise if Carlsen plays 1.Nf3 d5 2.g3 g6!?(as he has played earlier also) 3. Bg2 Bg7 4. d4 Nf6 5. 0-0 0-0 6. c4 and now the game transposes to the Fianchetto Grunfeld. 6...dc4 9. Nd4 is given on the screen which shows that Caruana probably has 6...dc4 in his preparations. 7. Na3 c5 8.Nc4 cd4 9.Nd4 hence may be a possibilty.
4.) Carlsen is known to be extremely clever as we also saw in our previous article. He probably can take full advantage of this fingerfehler and make Caruana suffer even more. The good thing for Caruana is that this is part of his Black repertoire only while Carlsen still does not have as much information about his White repertoire( At least not in this way)!
Another possibility is for this to be just a way for Caruana to misguide Carlsen. However, this is extremely unlikely as Caruana is not known for such machinations at all. He has also already played the QGD in the match and whether he will play the Petroff or not remained in a big looming question for the entire Chess World. I do not think this can be the case( as then the video would not have been taken, Caruana would not have had an uncomfortable press conference, somebody from St. Louis Chess Club must have clarified etc.)
Caruana looked quiet uncomfortable and under-confident in the press conference today. A major part of it, according to me is the Video that has circulated.
I think that this match is showing why Caruana is an ideal opponent for Carlsen by limitting Carlsen's preparations considerably and playing extremely strong chess! The Chess.com predictor also predicted Caruana to have a higher level of play as compared to Carlsen until now. Carlsen was winning in Game 1, Fabiano pressing in Game 2, Caruana better for the most part in game 3 before suffering a little while Game 4 can be called a damp squib in that regard. This goes on to show that things are looking interesting. The next game is going to be very interesting. Stay tuned for my predictions!
These stimulators show an increased chance for Carlsen to win outright has shrinked as compared to the begging of the match. Before Game 5, the chances are 23% for Caruana to win outright and less than 50% for Carlsen- a much better improvement compared to initially.
The World Chess Championship 2018 is truly living up to it's hype! The 4th game also led to a draw. Carlsen opened with 1. c4 and Caruana replied with 1...e5! I had predicted earlier that this could be a strategy to limit Carlsen's preparations and not to play 1...e6 which would likely transpose to the Queen's Gambit Declined played in Game 2. Carlsen continued with the 2.Nc3 Nf6 3.Nf3 Nc6 4.g3. Here we would have another Rossolimo discussion had Caruana played 4...Bb4 with White being a tempo up as compared to Black!😊😉 Caruana however played 4...Bc5( which he has played recently also) and the game followed Wesley So-Fabiano Caruana Paris GCT 2018. Carlsen came up with the interesting 11.b4!? for which Caruana replied with 11...Bd6. Caruana hence again limitted considerable amount of Carlsen preparations as it would be logical for Caruana to play 4...Bb4 as he has played it more often and has been seeing Rossolimo more frequently during this match and quiet possibly, even before the match. Carlsen then played 12. Rb1 and got some edge. The main talking point of the game came on move 15: to play 15. b5 or not to. One can follow the games live or even recorded here: https://www.chessbomb.com/arena/2018-wcc
Caruana impressed with his preparations today. He looks ready in the picture too! In the background are the Arbiter( in the center). On the right looks to be a female version of Vassily Ivanchuk. On the left is Jan Gustafsson's girlfriend, a popular singer who made the inaugral move. Jan is rumoured to be in Team Carlsen.
Carlsen decided against playing it as he believed that 15. b5 would not give much winning chances after 15... ab5 16. ab5 Bd7 wherein he believed that the position would be very much holdable. However, here I again think that both the players are not testing their opponent's enough agreeing for draws when they could have pressurized their opponent's much further. This has also been talked about by me in my earlier articles and is something am sure both the teams would be telling their bosses- keep pressing and provoke mistakes!
However, there is another reason I believed Carlsen did not play 15. b5: A lot of times, engines suggest improving moves when the resulting slight edge does not seem as convenient. Carlsen is also known to borrow some ideas of the way engines sometimes think. After 15. Re1 Bd7! however the game was pretty much equal till the end and the players split the point. This was also the shortest game of the match so far.
Here is the link to the Post-game Press Conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7s_rh0_Clyo
The question about the video(in the press conference) relates to a video posted by the St. Louis Chess Club giving an 'inside WCC preparations video' wherein they showed some of Caruana's trainers( Kasimdhzhanov, Chirilla, Alejandro Ramirez, Lenier Dominguez etc.). However, there was one major mistake in the video:
https://twitter.com/hartmannchess/status/1062204133489426432/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1062204133489426432&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fchess24.com%2Fen%2Fread%2Fnews%2Fcarlsen-caruana-4-prep-lies-and-videotape. This picture( a part of the Youtube video series) shows Caruana's laptop. It was a little blurred but on inspection one can notice clear lines being mentioned: Fianchetto Grunfeld, QGD Bf4 10...Re8 line, Preparations against Aronian's 9.Bd3 (although it was actually 8.Bd3), some Petroff lines as well as analysis of the 2016 Carlsen-Karjakin Match( probably in more detail). The overall video also showed Caruana playing Basketball while he also said that he gives importance to Physical Sports and would be doing some on the Rest Day.
https://twitter.com/olimpiuurcan/status/1062334344193175552 is a more elaborate version of the video posted which has now been removed from Youtube.
Is Carlsen now feeling like the boss? The task now does look a lot harder for Caruana whatever one might say!
The St.Louis Club took off the video after some time and it is 'off' Youtube now. This also makes Caruana's response: "It's better to not talk about it" more understandable. Chirilla, a part of Team Caruana declined to comment on it so did two people from the St. Louis Chess Club. However, the all-important image is already there for all to see- on John Hartmann's twitter post. It has already done some damage, but how damaging could it actually be?
Here is how this could significantly help Team Carlsen and damage Team Caruana:
1. Carlsen now probably knows that Caruana is going to play the Petroff. One of Carlsen's strategy has been to not play 1. e4 hence rendering a lot of Caruana's opening preparations not as useful. However, Team Carlsen can prepare to use 1. e4 as a surprise later in the match( maybe in game 7 or game 9.) Caruana would probably be caught off-guard as Carlsen has not allowed 1. e4 e5 to appear on board at all until now!
2.) It shows that Caruana is quiet well-prepared on the QGD and Carlsen can hence play some other lines. Caruana can also play 10...Re8 instead of 10...Rd8 as played in Game 2).
3.) The picture also shows the Fianchetto Grunfeld. This can arise if Carlsen plays 1.Nf3 d5 2.g3 g6!?(as he has played earlier also) 3. Bg2 Bg7 4. d4 Nf6 5. 0-0 0-0 6. c4 and now the game transposes to the Fianchetto Grunfeld. 6...dc4 9. Nd4 is given on the screen which shows that Caruana probably has 6...dc4 in his preparations. 7. Na3 c5 8.Nc4 cd4 9.Nd4 hence may be a possibilty.
4.) Carlsen is known to be extremely clever as we also saw in our previous article. He probably can take full advantage of this fingerfehler and make Caruana suffer even more. The good thing for Caruana is that this is part of his Black repertoire only while Carlsen still does not have as much information about his White repertoire( At least not in this way)!
Another possibility is for this to be just a way for Caruana to misguide Carlsen. However, this is extremely unlikely as Caruana is not known for such machinations at all. He has also already played the QGD in the match and whether he will play the Petroff or not remained in a big looming question for the entire Chess World. I do not think this can be the case( as then the video would not have been taken, Caruana would not have had an uncomfortable press conference, somebody from St. Louis Chess Club must have clarified etc.)
Caruana looked quiet uncomfortable and under-confident in the press conference today. A major part of it, according to me is the Video that has circulated.
I think that this match is showing why Caruana is an ideal opponent for Carlsen by limitting Carlsen's preparations considerably and playing extremely strong chess! The Chess.com predictor also predicted Caruana to have a higher level of play as compared to Carlsen until now. Carlsen was winning in Game 1, Fabiano pressing in Game 2, Caruana better for the most part in game 3 before suffering a little while Game 4 can be called a damp squib in that regard. This goes on to show that things are looking interesting. The next game is going to be very interesting. Stay tuned for my predictions!
These stimulators show an increased chance for Carlsen to win outright has shrinked as compared to the begging of the match. Before Game 5, the chances are 23% for Caruana to win outright and less than 50% for Carlsen- a much better improvement compared to initially.
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